The Importance of Agile Monetary Policy in Addressing Japan's Inflation Uncertainty

 Summary and Conclusion of The Article, “Uncertainty Around Japan Inflation Underscores Need for Nimble Monetary Policy”

By Purva Khera and Salih Fendoglu, from IMF(https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/05/24/cf-uncertainty-around-japan-inflation-underscores-need-for-nimble-monetary-policy?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)

The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding Japan's inflation and emphasizes the need for nimble monetary policy to address the situation. Japan has experienced a four-decade high in headline inflation due to the economic recovery, supportive monetary and fiscal policies, and a surge in tourism. The momentum in core prices, which exclude fresh food and energy, has also strengthened. While rapid price gains are usually undesirable, Japan's history of deflation makes this inflation surge a positive development.

The article highlights three reasons for hope that Japan is at a turning point in sustaining inflation around its 2% target. First, price pressures are becoming broader and more durable, indicating a shift from the initial trigger of the global energy and supply-chain crisis. Second, the annual labor union negotiations signal agreement on larger wage gains to keep up with rising prices. Third, business surveys indicate a sustained increase in inflation expectations, influencing corporate price-setting.

However, there are important caveats that make sustaining this inflation challenging. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which employ a significant portion of the workforce, may struggle to afford the wage increases necessary to support inflation. Additionally, a weakening global economy could strengthen the yen, making exports less competitive and potentially leading to low inflation or deflation. Household surveys also indicate that inflation expectations remain below the 2% target.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) faces the policy challenge of achieving its inflation target without significantly overshooting while safeguarding financial stability. The BOJ's ultra-accommodative monetary policy includes a negative interest rate and yield curve control. However, the yield gap created by other central banks raising interest rates has put downward pressure on the yen and forced the BOJ to buy a large amount of government bonds to defend the yield ceiling, destabilizing the market.

Photo from:https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/05/24/cf-uncertainty-around-japan-inflation-underscores-need-for-nimble-monetary-policy?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

To address these challenges, the article suggests that the BOJ should allow greater flexibility in longer-term yields, allow market forces to play out, and maintain accommodative stance by keeping the short-term policy rate unchanged. This flexibility would make monetary policy more nimble, reduce undesirable side-effects, and minimize risks to the economic recovery and price stability. The article outlines several ways the BOJ could be more flexible, including widening the target band around the 10-year rate and shifting to a quantity-based purchasing objective.

The article also discusses the global spillovers of Japan's monetary policy, as it is the world's largest net creditor. Rising government bond yields in Japan could attract investors back to domestic assets and put upward pressure on global yields, affecting countries where Japanese investors own a significant share of local debt. Clear communication of any changes to Japan's monetary policy stance is crucial to mitigate unintended consequences and market volatility.

Ultimately, achieving Japan's 2% inflation target sustainably requires the support of other policies. These include withdrawing pandemic-related fiscal support, implementing limited and targeted measures for vulnerable households, and addressing structural barriers to wage growth to boost personal income and purchasing power. Overcoming these challenges will contribute to a virtuous cycle of income and growth in the country.

Asia Faces Increasing Corporate Debt Risk Amid Rising Interest Rates

 As Asia experiences a surge in corporate debt and rising interest rates, experts warn of potential defaults. Central banks are maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation, leaving companies vulnerable to debt burdens. Over the past few decades, borrowing in Asia has reached alarming levels, heightening concerns over market volatility and interest rate fluctuations. Particularly worrisome are industries that heavily borrowed during low-rate periods, posing a significant risk across the region. It highlights the risks associated with increasing corporate debt in Asia, the impact of rising interest rates, and the vulnerability of companies with low interest coverage ratios. It also emphasizes the need for vigilance from financial supervisors and recommends measures to address the potential risks. Overall, it effectively captures the main message of the original piece in a brief and informative manner.

While Asia's economic growth remains robust, contributing two-thirds to global growth this year, central banks may prolong elevated interest rates to control inflation. This could lead to tighter financial conditions, increasing the likelihood of debt defaults among highly indebted companies. Despite resilient economic growth, rising borrowing costs may surpass companies' earnings, impairing their ability to repay debts.

A chart reveals that Asia's corporate debt is concentrated among companies with low interest coverage ratios. When this ratio approaches or falls below 1, it indicates a company's struggle to service its debts.

Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/05/24/asia-must-monitor-rising-corporate-debt-amid-higher-interest-rates?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

Several economies exhibit firms burdened by high debt interest payments relative to earnings, holding a significant portion of corporate debt. As of mid-2022, 17 percent of Asia's corporate debt belonged to firms with interest coverage ratios below one, while another third belonged to firms with ratios between one and four. China, India, and Thailand demonstrated a higher concentration of corporate debt in firms with ratios below one, indicating a susceptibility to default. The Philippines, Malaysia, and Hong Kong showed substantial shares of debt in companies with coverage ratios just above one, making them vulnerable to default as borrowing costs rise. The property and construction sector throughout the region also displayed numerous firms with interest coverage ratios near or below one.

Although recent cash reserves may temporarily mitigate the impact of rising interest rates, they may prove insufficient if borrowing costs remain high for an extended period. Companies with low interest coverage ratios generally possess lower cash holdings, exposing them to increasing borrowing costs. In India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, vulnerable firms have particularly meager cash reserves compared to interest costs, elevating their risk of insolvency. Additionally, the prevalence of short-term debt in Asia means even companies with substantial cash reserves may face severe pressures if credit conditions tighten and short-term loan availability decreases.

In conclusion, Asia faces an increasing risk of corporate debt amid rising interest rates. The region's reliance on borrowing has reached alarming levels, leaving companies vulnerable to debt burdens as central banks maintain higher interest rates to combat inflation. Industries that heavily borrowed during low-rate periods pose a significant risk across the region. The concentration of corporate debt among companies with low interest coverage ratios amplifies the potential for defaults. Despite Asia's robust economic growth, the tightening of financial conditions due to elevated interest rates may surpass companies' earnings, impairing their ability to repay debts.

The vulnerability of highly indebted firms highlights the need for vigilance from financial supervisors and policymakers. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is actively monitoring the situation and collaborating with central banks and policymakers to address systemic risk concerns. Financial supervisors should utilize macroprudential tools to address vulnerabilities in the corporate sector, while central banks should employ specialized tools to safeguard stability while tackling inflationary pressures. It is crucial to separate monetary policy objectives from financial stability goals to ensure effective risk management.

While recent cash reserves may provide temporary relief, they may prove inadequate if borrowing costs remain high over an extended period. Companies with low interest coverage ratios, particularly in countries like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, have meager cash reserves compared to interest costs, elevating their risk of insolvency. The prevalence of short-term debt in the region further exacerbates the pressures faced by companies, as credit conditions tighten and short-term loan availability decreases.