This week, I decided to do some research on “Nuclear Talk”, because as Russia invaded Ukraine, I was worry about the possibility of World War III. If it happens, it highly likely to be the end of the world. Quite scaring, doesn’t it. The article “Nuclear Talk Revives Tone of Cold War” is from The New York Times by David E. Sanger, Anton Troianovski and Julian E. Barnes.
About The Article
Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to defend Russian territory, which now includes four provinces of eastern Ukraine. The Russian leader is seeking to instill fear and regain respect for Russia's power in the face of a humiliating retreat and high casualty rates. The threat of using part of Russia's stockpile of roughly 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons could also be used to extort concessions that Putin has been unable to win on the battlefield. While senior American officials say they think the chances that Putin would use a nuclear weapon remain low, they are concerned that he may resort to using them to reverse his army's perceived loss in Ukraine. American officials are reportedly gaming out scenarios should Putin resort to battlefield nuclear weapons, while Russian analysts and officials believe that the specter of nuclear conflict gives their side a distinct advantage.
A Tricky Threat
The threat of using nuclear weapons, whether tactical or strategic, is a serious matter that raises concerns about the stability of international relations and the potential for catastrophic consequences. It is important to note that any use of nuclear weapons would have devastating humanitarian, environmental, and political effects, not only on the target but also on the aggressor. Russia's annexation of Crimea and involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine have already strained relations with the West, and the threat of using nuclear weapons further escalates tensions and undermines trust between countries. The use of nuclear weapons also violates international law and norms established by the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
It is unclear whether Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons is a genuine military strategy or a political ploy to intimidate his opponents and gain leverage in negotiations. Nevertheless, the mere possibility of a nuclear conflict highlights the urgent need for diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis and prevent further escalation of violence. It also underscores the importance of maintaining and strengthening existing international agreements and institutions that promote peace and security, including arms control treaties and nuclear non-proliferation regimes.
Indeed, the threat of Russia using battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine is a tricky threat. On one hand, it is unlikely that Russia would actually use nuclear weapons, as the cost would be tremendous, including a furious international response and potentially catastrophic consequences for Russia. On the other hand, the threat of using nuclear weapons could be a way for Russia to instill fear and extort concessions that it has been unable to win on the battlefield. Additionally, the possibility of nuclear conflict is concerning given the potential catastrophic consequences for both sides and the world at large. The fact that nuclear threats are happening again after decades of reduction in strategic weapons is alarming and highlights the return of Cold War-style brinksmanship.
Overall, I think the situation is a tricky one, with the potential for devastating consequences. It is important for leaders on both sides to exercise caution and diplomacy to prevent any escalation of conflict that could result in nuclear use.
Conclusion
In the recent years, there has been a shift in the geopolitical landscape, with Russia making explicit nuclear threats and officials in Washington gaming out responses should President Vladimir V. Putin decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon. While some senior American officials believe the chances of such an event remain low, they are far more worried about the possibility now than they were at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict in February. President Putin sees the threat of his nuclear arsenal as a way to instill fear and recover some respect for Russia's power. The possibility of using part of his stockpile of roughly 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons to extort concessions that he has been unable to win on the battlefield is also a concern. The exchange of threats and counterthreats between the two nations is reminiscent of the worst moments of the Cold War. The outcome of the war in Ukraine is of existential significance to the Kremlin, but not to the White House, which Russian officials believe would give them the advantage in the test of wills that nuclear brinkmanship represents. The risk of a nuclear conflict is a cause for concern, and all parties must seek to avoid it, given the catastrophic consequences that would result.
Reference
Sanger, D. E., Troianovski, A., & Barnes, J. E. (2022, October 2). Nuclear Talk Revives Tone of Cold War. New York Times, A1(L). https://link.gale.com/apps/doc/A720480797/CDB?u=lirn17237&sid=bookmark-CDB&xid=669b76d2
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